09/16/2026
Ottawa housing starts are up, sounds like good news for housing affordability, right?
Not so fast.
CMHC released its latest housing numbers today, and Ottawa has seen strong housing construction. But the headline doesn't tell the whole story.
The important question is: WHAT are we actually building?
According to CMHC, 54% of Ottawa's housing starts in 2026 are purpose-built rentals. Rentals now account for 69% of all housing currently under construction in Ottawa.
Meanwhile, condominium apartment starts are down 49% year-over-year, and condos represent only 12% of current starts.
So yes, we're building a lot of housing, but increasingly we're building housing to RENT, not housing to BUY.
That distinction matters.
More rental construction is good news for renters. As thousands of new rental units are completed, increased competition should help vacancy rates, moderate rent increases and give tenants more choices.
But what happens on the ownership side?
If we continue building relatively few condos, townhomes and other ownership properties, eventually today's slowdown works its way through the construction pipeline.
Right now Ottawa's resale market has a reasonable amount of inventory and buyers have choices. But new construction decisions being made today determine the supply we have several years from now.
If demand for homeownership strengthens again while the pipeline of new ownership housing remains weak, that could eventually tighten inventory and put renewed pressure on prices.
CMHC is essentially warning about this very issue. Despite Ottawa's high overall level of construction, it says the city's housing supply gap has actually WIDENED and that ownership affordability challenges are likely to persist unless more condominium and ground-oriented housing gets built.
Here's another number that really puts it into perspective:
In the four quarters ending Q2 2021, Ottawa had approximately 11,011 freehold and condominium starts combined.
For the four quarters ending Q2 2026: approximately 4,679.
At the same time, purpose-built rental starts went from roughly 1,500 to almost 6,000.
That's a massive shift in what we're building.
So when you see a headline saying "housing starts are up," dig a little deeper.
Ottawa may be improving rental supply, which is important and much needed.
But we aren't necessarily solving homeownership affordability at the same time.
In fact, if we don't start building considerably more housing for ownership, we may simply be setting ourselves up for another supply problem when buyer demand returns.
Source: CMHC Housing Starts โ August 2026 & Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report
August 2026 housing starts data for Canada